Cyprus issue in deadlock as focus turns to Turkey, Greece

In today’s political diary, one important meeting and two other meetings are recorded, which even if postponed, will not cause anxiety to anyone (except for some journalists and a couple of politicians).

The first is the Ankara meeting between Erdoğan and Mitsotakis, and the other two are the meetings of Holguín and Christodoulides and Tatár.

Starting with the two meetings in Nicosia, whether they take place or are postponed – as it stands today – makes no difference to the Cyprus issue.

Ersin Tatár stated this to Holguín in their first meeting last week, and he says publicly that if his terms are not met, he will not sit at the same table as Christodoulides. Nikos Christodoulides declares himself ready to meet Tatár, but makes it clear that he will not take any steps to satisfy Turkish demands.

And then there’s Holguín, who behind the scenes lets her interlocutors know that she wants to see some steps from the Greek Cypriot side in order for the whole effort to move forward.

While at this stage, she doesn’t seem willing to take responsibility for the continuation of the deadlock. Anyway, for her, things have been the same since her involvement in the Cyprus issue began.

With these facts, we cannot expect any developments today or tomorrow in Cyprus if it depends on any gesture from the three aforementioned.

Attention is turning to Ankara and the talks between the President of Turkey and the Prime Minister of Greece.

We have seen from their public statements that there are different approaches regarding Cyprus and possibly even different philosophies on how to solve the problem. But beyond that, one must wonder how much the Cyprus issue will concern the two leaders.

And if they discuss it, will they link it to EU-Turkey relations?

At least from what is publicly expected, Kyriakos Mitsotakis will enumerate the benefits Turkey can have in the European Union if it makes some moves on Cyprus.

But even in this case, it is not certain whether Erdoğan will rush to embrace Mitsotakis’s suggestions and take actions on Cyprus.

Actions, of course, can easily be taken by Erdoğan. He may suggest to Tatár to accept a trilateral meeting with Christodoulides. Anyway, Tatár does not have the political leverage to do anything different from what Ankara and Erdoğan will suggest to him.

So, from the moment they tell him to say yes to a trilateral meeting, he will say it.

Despite many thinking that it is difficult for Turkey, Erdoğan, and Tatár to agree to a trilateral meeting, if we look a little more carefully at the history of Cyprus, we will see that a positive response from the Turkish side may be much easier than imagined.

And of course, the response to a trilateral meeting will not be about Christodoulides and Tatár meeting with Holguín here in Cyprus, but for a meeting of the two with the Secretary-General of the United Nations in New York next September.

If some believe that the exchange will be for Ankara to gain some benefits in EU-Turkey relations, they are probably making miscalculations.

The most likely thing to happen is for the Turkish side to seek some exchange in favour of the Turkish Cypriot side. And don’t think that the exchanges will be those measures that Nikos Christodoulides repeats every now and then.

With a Turkish “ace” in hand, both Holguín and various third parties, as well as Cyprus’s partners in the EU, will turn to Nicosia and Nikos Christodoulides to tell him that Turkey accepted, brought Tatár back to the table, and that now it’s your turn to make a gesture. And that’s where the difficulties begin…